Epistemic and other probabilities

 

The classical definition of probability works well for situations with only a finite number of equally-likely outcomes.

Does probability measure the real, physical tendency of something to occur, or is it just a measure of how strongly one believes it will occur? In answering such questions, we interpret the probability values of probability theory.


 I am entering a cave, what will I find in there? A bear! Do bears hang out in caves?. Once inside the cave will there be flooding?


How do I evaluate  these probabilities?


Do I employ epistemic (degrees of rational belief) probabiity, or  inductive, or plain old logic?