Once it becomes clear that all judgments, including all individual judgments, rest on
various kinds of generalisation, rules can be devised that take account of the
inadequate generalisations of individuals.
Let us go to Judges, it should come as no surprise that judges, (and this is a generalisation) just like carpenters, police officers, customs officials and university professors, (all gneralisations) are hardly the best judges of the frequency and magnitude of their own errors.
A striking thoughrs is that the judgment of the group may be better than the judgment of all the individuals within it, even though the judgment of the group is solely determined by the judgment of its individual members.
However, no gambler can outperform over time the final market on a horserace (the ‘starting price’), which is shaped by the collective judgment of everyone who bets on the race, however ignorant, foolish or cavalier. The only way to make money on the horses is to bet early (to ‘take a price’) before the hoi polloi have had their say. This seems paradoxical. After all, when you bet early you are pitting your judgment against that of the bookmaker, who is also likely to be much better informed than the crowd. When you bet late, you are betting against the crowd, to whom the bookmakers have in the end to surrender their judgment. But in the long run, the crowd will win. In ignorance there is indeed a kind of strength
Let us go to Judges, it should come as no surprise that judges, (and this is a generalisation) just like carpenters, police officers, customs officials and university professors, (all gneralisations) are hardly the best judges of the frequency and magnitude of their own errors.
A striking thoughrs is that the judgment of the group may be better than the judgment of all the individuals within it, even though the judgment of the group is solely determined by the judgment of its individual members.
However, no gambler can outperform over time the final market on a horserace (the ‘starting price’), which is shaped by the collective judgment of everyone who bets on the race, however ignorant, foolish or cavalier. The only way to make money on the horses is to bet early (to ‘take a price’) before the hoi polloi have had their say. This seems paradoxical. After all, when you bet early you are pitting your judgment against that of the bookmaker, who is also likely to be much better informed than the crowd. When you bet late, you are betting against the crowd, to whom the bookmakers have in the end to surrender their judgment. But in the long run, the crowd will win. In ignorance there is indeed a kind of strength
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